Charts & Figgers

Each Saturday brings high-level statistical analysis from a man who hasn't taken a math class since high school.

So far this season, the Black Prezodents are tops in the league in steals, averaging almost 35 a week. Kill Whitey, on the other hand, is last in the league averaging a mere 13. And yet, as of this writing (sunday, 7:10), the two teams are separated by only one steal. Schedule variations, injuries, and roster changes conspire together every week to take what should be clear victories and turn them into defeats. Certainly team management comes into play somewhat in determining these unexpected results, but to a large degree it comes down to luck. Considering this, I decided to look into quantifying the luck of each team in the league.

To determine the luck factor of each team, I looked over the full-season statistics for each team, looking at who they're ahead of, who they're behind, and how many times they've played each. Then I compared the total number of games they've won to the number of games they "should have" won, thus producing their Luck Factor. (Ejemplo: The Browless Wonders are 8th in the league in field goal percentage, and they've played teams 9-12 six times, so they "should" have six fg% wins. In fact, they have 10. Lucky fucks.)

The Cluj U FBA Luck Index (as of Week 18)
Fear the Turtle: has won 65, should have won 49. Luck Factor = +16
Screen Team: has won 79, should have won 66. Luck Factor = +13
Black Ice: has won 29, should have won 25. Luck Factor = +4
Professor Dribbles: has won 65, should have won 63. Luck Factor = +2
Fire Al Groh: has won 89, should have won 87. Luck Factor = +2
Dominique Moceanu: has won 60, should have won 61. Luck Factor = -1
Kill Whitey: has won 66, should have won 68. Luck Factor = -2
Black Prezodents: have won 75, should have won 78. Luck Factor = -3
Working's fo Suckers: has won 63, should have won 70. Luck Factor = -7
The Browless Wonders: have won 84, should have won 92. Luck Factor = -8
Great Oden's Raven: have won 84, should have won 95. Luck Factor = -11
Snap Jelly Soldiers: have won 91, should have won 110. Luck Factor = -19

That's right, despite the fact that Snap Jelly Soldiers are on top of the league, they've actually lost a lot of games that, statistically, they should have won. Instead of just beating the rest of us, they should be crushing us. I should also note that Screen's Luck Factor is probably thrown off a bit by the fact that he produced no stats for the first two weeks, but I'm not about to do a ton more math just to eliminate that inconsistency.
The biggest swings in luck came in the percentage categories, with Snap Jelly suffering a -8 differential and Great Oden's Raven boasting a +8 differential in field goal percentage. In general, though, percentages are decided by relatively thin margins, so it's not surprising that the results should be so influenced by luck. Among the volume stats, the biggest swings were Fear the Turles, with +6's in both Assists and 3-Pointers, and Kill Whitey, with a -7 in Assists.
Obviously, there's nothing any of us can do to affect or alter our luck, but things in the fantasy universe do tend towards parity and equality, and I am a believer in karma, so those of you with negative luck factors can probably expect some good things coming your way in the next couple weeks. As for Dev and Screen? You two are fucked.