Though I haven't been ultra-competitive during the regular season, preferring instead to focus on building my team around a certain philosophy (badassical dudes), for the Playoffs I decided to take things seriously. To that end, I built a spreadsheet to predict my performance (and my opponent's performance) for the week, using past-month averages and games played. I figured I could figure out which specifically which categories I should go after and which I could afford to sacrifice, etc. As it turns out, my optimum line-up is exactly the same as the line-up I would have put in with no statistical analysis whatsoever, and there are no changes to make other than simply playing my best players.
But anyways, having made the spreadsheet and found the results, I figured I might as well share them with you, especially now that the games have begun and there's no more changes to be made. I also put Great Oden's Raven and Screen Team through the same spreadsheet to produce results for them. My statistical knowledge/willingness to do math is not good enough to figure out a good way to calculate team percentages, so I just took the average of all the players, which is not even remotely correct. Still, here's what I came up with:
Black Prezodents' Projected Week 22:
.475 - .761 - 41 - 584 - 258 - 138 - 37 - 28
One Down... One to Go's Projected Week 22:
.485 - .735 - 35 - 601 - 214 - 99 - 34 - 29
Projected Outcome: 5 - 3 Black Prez victory
Great Oden's Raven's Projected Week 22:
.450 - .833 - 34 - 542 - 174 - 135 - 34 - 18
Screen Team's Projected Week 22:
.497 - .813 - 13 - 488 - 190 - 90 - 33 - 18
Projected Outcome: 5 - 2 - 1 Great Oden victory
As you can see, the match-ups to watch this week are points, steals and blocks in the Bardey-Sovic battle, and rebounds, steals and blocks in the Bernier-Screen tilt.
Or these projections will be totally inaccurate and mean nothing. Fun though, right?
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I predict viche and dois will tie 4-4. The first tie breaker is points, which dois will have won by a very slim margin. Sorry, sovic, you're going home.
ReplyDeleteI predict beb will take down screen...at least 5-3. With Nene's suspension, I don't see how Screen can take any categories other than FG, FT, and steals (unless beb's players turn pussy again and get injured). Screen's team is built to be big and also get assists (but he's not going to out-dime beb)...and beb is already beating him in the big categories.
ReplyDeleteDamn Nene! I gave Sovic Horford for Nene and I have been quite content with the trade until now. Plus Kenyon came back and now Balkman's back on the bench. Should've started J Jack or Haslem. I hope Durant lights a fire in the rest of my fucko players.
ReplyDeleteBardey's boys also play one game fewer than Black Prez. Somehow, sovic got 35 games out of his clowns and the Frenchman and I only got 31 for the week.
The frenchman? Wow, I think beb found a new nickname.
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