A Dose of Reality

I just read a few things about actual, reality basketball that I found very interesting, and I thought I'd share them with you. First there is Simmons' latest column, about the circumstances that have led to the very likely upcoming NBA strike/lockout. You've probably already read it, but did you read it on your Kindle? No, because you're not a badass like me. Anyway, I liked it because despite writing from "the fan's perspective" (which hasn't really been true for a long time), Simmons rarely gets this righteously angry at the sports figures he writes about, even though he (and we) have every right to.

The second thing I read, which is actually far more useful if not as emotionally appealing, is from Blazer's Edge. It's an assessment of each team's cap situation going into this mammoth SUMMER OF 2010 that we've all been hearing about for seemingly five years now. You can read it yourself, but because writing it out myself helps me understand things, and because I want to have a more roster-centric look at the situation, I'm going to summarize it in my own way after the jump.


OK this will only include the teams that will have space underneath the cap. The cap predicted by the BE column is $53.5 million, which is lower than this year's (which, I believe, was lower than last year's). Due to the NBA's dwindling revenues, this seems reasonable. There are a number of exceptions to the cap, most prominently the Mid-Level Exception (MLE) and the Larry Bird Exception. The MLE allows a team to sign a player or players over the cap for a salary equal to the average NBA salary (which was 5.8 million this season). That exception can be used by any team, and can be split amongst any number of players, so it's likely that teams near or over the cap would use it to sign their "lesser" talent. That leaves teams that have cap space and teams looking to re-sign their own players as the ones able to make big offers. Teams looking to re-sign their own players can use the Larry Bird Exception on any player who has played three years without being waived or signed as a free agent. For example, this is how Cleveland will look to re-sign LeBron, even though they are near the cap even without his sure-to-be-enormous contract.
And then at some point over the cap you run into the luxury tax, but that doesn't really come into play here. Anyways, here is a summary of the teams with significant cap room, as well as their players under contract:

Chicago Bulls
Under Contract:

PG Derrick Rose
SG Kirk Hinrich
SF Luol Deng
PF Taj Gibson, James Johnson
C Joakim Noah

1st Rd. Draft Pick: presumed #19

Cap Space: $17.91 million

Los Angeles Clippers
Under Contract:
PG Baron Davis
SG Eric Gordon
SF
PF Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan (assumed)
C Chris Kaman

1st Rd. Draft Pick: presumed #10

Cap Space: 15.26 million

Miami Heat
Under Contract:

PG Mario Chalmers (assumed)
SG Daequan Cook
SF
PF Michael Beasley
C Joel Anthony (assumed)

1st Rd. Draft Picks: presumed #17 & #18 (via trade w/Toronto)

Cap Space: a) if Wade picks up his option, $20.72 million
     b) if Wade doesn't pick up option, $21.3 million
     c) if Wade signs with another team, $37.39 million

Minnesota Timberwolves
Under Contract:

PG Jonny Flynn, Ramon Sessions (and Rubio?)
SG Corey Brewer, Wayne Ellington
SF
PF Al Jefferson
C Kevin Love, Ryan Hollins

1st Rd. Draft Picks: presumed #2, #15 (via trade w/Charlotte), #24 (via trade w/Utah)

Cap Space: $12.06 million

New Jersey Nets
Under Contract:

PG Devin Harris
SG Courtney Lee
SF Douglas-Roberts (assumed), Terrence Williams
PF Yi Jianlian, Kris Humphries (assumed)
C Brook Lopez

1st Rd. Draft Picks: presumed #1 and #23 (via trade w/Dallas)

Cap Space: $23.22 million

New York Knicks
Under Contract:

PG
SG Toney Douglas
SF Danilo Gallinari
PF Wilson Chandler
C Eddy Curry (assumed)

1st Rd. Draft Picks: None?

Cap Space: $33.04 million

Oklahoma City Thunder
Under Contract:

PG: Russell Westbrook, Eric Maynor
SG: James Harden, Kyle Weaver (assumed)
SF: Kevin Durant, Thabo Sefolosha
PF: Jeff Green, DJ White
C: Nick Collison, Nenad Krstic, Byron Mullens, Serge Ibaka

1st Rd. Draft Picks: presumed #21 and #20 (via trade w/Phoenix)

Cap Space: $11.28 million

Sacramento Kings
Under Contract:

PG: Tyreke Evans, Beno Udrih
SG: Francisco Garcia, Omri Casspi
SF: Donte Green, Andres Nocioni
PF: Jason Thompson, Carl Landry (assumed), Joey Dorsey (assumed)
C: Spencer Hawes

1st Rd. Draft Pick: presumed #4

Cap Space: $15.93 million

Washington Wizards
Under Contract:

PG Gilbert Arenas
SG Nick Young, Quinton Ross (assumed)
SF Al Thornton
PF Andray Blatche
C Javale McGee

1st Rd. Draft Picks: presumed #6 and #30 (via trade w/Cleveland)

Cap Space: a) if they pick up Josh Howard's team option, $7.7 million
     b) if they let Howard go, $19.0 million

Those are all your contenders to make big splashes in the free agent market. Of course, despite not being listed, Cleveland, Toronto, Phoenix and Atlanta stand to be players simply via their ability to keep their own big name free agents. Speaking of which, here's a list of the big names out there:

SF LeBron James
SG Dwyane Wade (P)
PF Chris Bosh (P)
SG Kobe Bryant (P)
SG Joe Johnson
PF Amare Stoudemire (ETO)
PF Dirk Nowitzki (ETO)
PF Carlos Boozer
C Yao Ming (ETO)
SF Paul Pierce (ETO)
SF Rudy Gay (Restricted)
SG Ray Allen
PF David Lee
C Brendan Haywood
C Shaquille O'Neal
SG Michael Redd (ETO)
C Marcus Camby
SG Josh Howard (P)
SG Manu Ginobili
SF Tracy McGrady
PG Nate Robinson
PF Kenyon Martin (ETO)
SF Richard Jefferson (ETO)
PG Ray Felton
C Tyson Chandler (ETO)
C Brad Miller
SF John Salmons (ETO)
PG TJ Ford (P)

P stands for a Player Option. ETO stands for Early Termination Option, which is like a Player Option but generally comes earlier than the last year of a contract (when a Player Option usually kicks in). For a player to exercise his ETO would usually mean that he feels he's pretty woefully underpaid as is, since he's risking signing a new contract in a market that is probably weaker than the one he signed his original contract in (see: Amare Stoudemire). Some of the names on here are a surprise to me, such as Kobe and Dirk. I think it's assumed that neither of these guys would leave their situation because a) they're already being paid an obscene amount of money and b) they would demand max money anywhere they go, and since they have so much experience, a max contract for them would be even costlier than one for LeBron, Wade, etc.

Speaking of max contracts, you might be wondering what they are: For players of 0-6 years of experience, it's 25% of the cap - using this estimated cap, that's $13.375 million. For 7-9 years experience, it's 30% - $16.05 million. For 10+ years experience, it's 35% - $18.725 million.

After looking at all this, here are my thoughts:

*Pretty much all the top guys fit in to that 7-9 year category, meaning that signing two of them to max contracts would cost you $32.1 million. The Knicks and Heat are the only teams in position to do this, and the Heat seems more likely since they can re-sign Wade as one of their two, sign another max, and still have a bit of cap space. The Knicks would basically get their two max players and then have to round out the roster with a bunch of shitters.

*The Thunder, already "up-and-coming," are in great position to add one more piece (likely a center - Stoudemire? Haywood?) and make a run in the next two years.

*The Wiz will have max money, but who would want to play there that deserves max money? It seems that even with the gun charges, they can't get rid of Gilbert, and I have a hard time seeing him play with any other prominent guard. Seems like Bosh is their best bet?

*If I were LeBron six months ago, looking at Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, a pretty new Brooklyn arena, and my boy Jay-Z, I'd be dead set on the Nets. If I'm LeBron now? No chance.

*Somehow, I see Joe Johnson a Knick. Not sure why, I just do.

*If Wade ends up going home to Chicago, a nucleus of he, Rose, Deng, and Noah would be pretty sick.

*Minnesota, with all those draft picks last year (Flynn, Rubio, Lawson) somehow ended up with three more this year. I hope they take three more point guards!

Keep in mind that with sign-and-trades, any other team could conceivably get involved in the market as well, but at least now I have a better idea of what that market is, and who are the initial players. I hope you do too.