Most of us have been doing fantasy since college or thereafter, in the era of web-compiled stats and high-falutin' services offering instant updates, live scoring, and--praise be--chat rooms. We're familiar with the term "roto," but mostly just as a synonym for fantasy or as the fake surname of ESPN guru Matthew Berry. For Browless Wonders owner Will Shoaf, though, 'roto' still exists in its original meaning, from the days when Shoaf's dad and his weird, probably dental-based, friends would do a rotisserie baseball league where everyone is playing everyone all the time.
Still trying to please his Dad after all these years, Will has compiled our league's results as if it were a roto league. I don't think I can cut and paste his formatting (he made a chart!) into this site, so I'm just going to try to publish a link. Let me know if this works:
Will's Roto Analysis
[UPDATE: I've replaced the original link with the one from the comments section that supposedly works.]
3.12.2009
Morning Dump
A quick look at last night's highs and lows.
Hot Shit: Chris Paul, Browless
.688 - .889 - 0 - 30 - 10 -13 - 4 - 0
Loose Stool: Ben Gordon, Snap Jelly
.100 - 1.000 - 0 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 0 - 0
Upper Decker: Rasual Butler, Black Prez
.389 - .500 - 6 - 21 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 1
Hot Shit: Chris Paul, Browless
.688 - .889 - 0 - 30 - 10 -13 - 4 - 0
Loose Stool: Ben Gordon, Snap Jelly
.100 - 1.000 - 0 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 0 - 0
Upper Decker: Rasual Butler, Black Prez
.389 - .500 - 6 - 21 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 1
3.11.2009
Morning Dump
A quick daily look at last night's highs and lows.
Hot Shit: LeBron James, Snap Jelly
.435 - .750 - 0 - 32 - 13 - 11 - 2 - 2
Loose Stool: Wilson Chandler, Browless
.333 - .000 - 0 - 4 - 2 - 2 - 0 - 0
Upper Decker: Larry Hughes, Fire Groh
.650 - .889 - 5 - 39 - 6 - 2 - 4 - 0
(Just to be clear, the Upper Decker designation refers to the best performance by a bench player. Quality work, but in the wrong location.)
Hot Shit: LeBron James, Snap Jelly
.435 - .750 - 0 - 32 - 13 - 11 - 2 - 2
Loose Stool: Wilson Chandler, Browless
.333 - .000 - 0 - 4 - 2 - 2 - 0 - 0
Upper Decker: Larry Hughes, Fire Groh
.650 - .889 - 5 - 39 - 6 - 2 - 4 - 0
(Just to be clear, the Upper Decker designation refers to the best performance by a bench player. Quality work, but in the wrong location.)
3.10.2009
Week 19 in Review: Game Re-Caps
What you missed if you were only paying attention to your own game, you selfish prick.
Before I dive in I wanted to announce a few changes to the Faculty. Firstly, you'll notice that there's a "Recent Moves" column off to the right. Rather than providing a weekly wrap-up, I'll try to post moves as they happen (imagine Jack Bauer screaming "I need that information in real time!"), so that you can get the freshest version of my opinion on why they are stupid/pointless. Also, one of our regulars has inquired about writing a guest blog, and I would like to widely announce that that is more than welcome. The point of this is to be a league site, and while I like to post my own bullshit, I'd also love to make this a repository of all the different kinds of bullshit we're able to come up with in this group. Please remember to include something to the effect of "This is nowhere near as good as Sovic's stuff" in the Comments section, though, to protect my oh-so-fragile ego. Anyways, if you want to submit something, just send it to me in an e-mail or attached to an e-mail and I will get it formatted into the blog.
Now onto some Game Re-Caps:
Fire Al Groh 5 (ft%/3pm/pts/reb/blk)
Fear the Turtle 3 (fg%/ast/stl)
What an appropriate week for these two teams to play, and what an appropriate outcome. The Hoos' victory over the Terps likely ended their chances at an NCAA berth, while FAG's defeat of the Turtle probably drove the final nail in the coffin of any playoff hopes for Dev. The epitaph on that playoff gravestone (extended metaphor!) may very well want to mention the early-week injury to Caron Butler, who ended up playing only one game in Week 19. CaBron did nearly contribute an Octuplet in his return, but even Tony Parker's big week (112 pts, 30 ast, 60% fgp and 96% ftp) couldn't overcome those three missed games. Bardey's boys had a number of well-rounded performances, most notably Mo Williams' 15 threes, 100 points, 17 boards and 15 assists. They also garnered a rare win in free throw percentage, owing to strong weeks by Williams, Vince Carter, Nate Robinson, and Josh Howard, and a not-awful week by Dwight Howard.
The Browless Wonders 7 (everything but blk)
Black Ice 1 (blk)
There's never all that much to say about these match-ups with Black Ice. Once again he had an 0-fer in the line-up, but Luol Deng didn't miss a game until after the week had started, so I'm not sure we can blame him. Let's focus on the positives for the Wonders: neither Chris Paul nor Jason Terry missed a free throw; Delonte West had a league-leading 13 steals on the strength of an 8-steal game; and Charlie V and Luis Scola both averaged double-doubles in scoring and boarding. If only Will had some big men he might have had a clean sweep by winning blocks. What's that you say? Charlie Villanueva, David West, Luis Scola, and Marcus Camby are all big men who should be able to get some blocks? Well maybe Will should think about getting some big guys who are interested in playing defense, or don't have migraine headaches that keep them out for weeks at a time.
Kill Whitey 4 (ft%/3pm/ast/blk)
Black Prezodents 3 (fg%/pts/reb)
Here's what I wrote on Sunday evening as this match-up was winding down: "So far this season, the Black Prezodents are tops in the league in steals, averaging almost 35 a week. Kill Whitey, on the other hand, is last in the league averaging a mere 13. And yet, as of this writing (sunday, 7:10), the two teams are separated by only one steal." That was me, up by a steal, and I thought it was a secure margin with JR Smith yet to play for me and Chris Anderson yet to play for Dekker. I was wrong; motherfucker tied me in steals. I think my Luck Factor has dipped by at least 1. Then again, I absolutely suck at field goal percentage, but Dekker's Whiteys were worst in the league this week, so maybe, as I suggested, it all balances out. Of note in the win was Steve Nash, who averaged 25 pts and 11 ast and shot 55%/88%.
Great Oden's Raven 5 (3pm/pts/reb/ast/stl)
Working's fo Suckers 3 (fg%/ft%/blk)
I don't normally proclaim a "Game of the Week" or anything, but if I did this would have been it. Of these two teams' 16 stat performances, 10 were in the top 3 in the league, including several in which they duked it out in the same category: Oden #1 and Suckers #2 in assists; Suckers #1 and Oden #2 in free throw percentage; Oden #2 and Suckers #3 in steals. Ultimately, though, Oden gained the slight edge in a few of those squeakers and continued their dominance of a select group of categories. This game also featured some drama, in that these two teams had recently made a big trade, and three of those players were in the starting line-ups. Only Jesse's acquisitions, however, had much to contribute, as Andris Biedrins apparently is not entirely over his injury. Randy Foye also missed some time, but Marc Gasol chipped in 11 blocks to lead the Suckers to victory in that category.
Snap Jelly Soldiers 6 (3pm/pts/reb/ast/stl/blk)
Screen Team 2 (fg%/ft%)
Screen Team is suffering right now from two teams' willingness to sit their stars, albeit for different reasons: the Celtics are a lock for the playoffs, and can afford to give their defensive centerpiece, Kevin Garnett, as much time as he needs to recover; and the Thunder are a lock for the lottery, and can't risk bringing the future of the franchise, Kevin Durant, back too soon. Fortunately, Screen Team is nearly a lock for the playoffs as well, so they can afford the spanking they took at the hands of Snap Jelly. Steffens' team has had a few off-weeks, but they were back in business to start March, leading the league in rebounds and blocks by considerable margins. As always, Snap Jelly was led by LeBron, who's really been stepping up his outside game lately (12 threes), and were helped along by solid all-around stats from top to bottom of the line-up.
Professor Dribbles 5 (fg%/pts/reb/ast/blk)
Dominique Moceanu 3 (ft%/3pm/stl)
If I bothered to name a Game of the Week, I suppose I can go ahead and name this Non-Game of the Week. Only two performances in this match-up--Dribbles' field goal percentage and Moceanu's threes--were in the top quarter of the league. Dribbles did secure the victory, but it should be noted that two of Billy's starters (Jeff Green and Allen Iverson) did not play a minute. Green's injury means that Billy very nearly acquired Baron Davis, Rasheed Wallace, and Michael Beasley in exchange for absolutely nothing a few weeks ago, so once again I have to applaud and thank him for his honest business dealing. Dekker may disagree.
The Best & Worst of Week 19:
FG%: Screen Team .508, Kill Whitey .451
FT%: Working's fo Suckers .856, Professor Dribbles .765
3PM: Fire Al Groh 49, Fear the Turtle 12
Pts: Great Oden's Raven 633, Black Ice 324
Reb: Snap Jelly Soldiers 242, Dominique Moceanu 125
Ast: Great Oden's Raven 154, Fire Al Groh 69
Stl: The Browless Wonders 47, Black Ice 21
Blk: Snap Jelly Soldiers 40, Dominique Moceanu 9
We're less than two weeks from the start of the play-offs, so this is the last chance for teams like Kill Whitey, Professor Dribbles, and Fear the Turtle to make their move. Here's who's battling in Week 20:
Black Prezodents vs. Great Oden's Raven
The Browless Wonders vs. Kill Whitey
Fear the Turtle vs. Black Ice
Professor Dribbles vs. Fire Al Groh
Snap Jelly Soldiers vs. Dominique Moceanu
Working's fo Suckers vs. Screen Team
Good luck to all except for Bernier, porque el presidente no es mas que una marioneta.
Before I dive in I wanted to announce a few changes to the Faculty. Firstly, you'll notice that there's a "Recent Moves" column off to the right. Rather than providing a weekly wrap-up, I'll try to post moves as they happen (imagine Jack Bauer screaming "I need that information in real time!"), so that you can get the freshest version of my opinion on why they are stupid/pointless. Also, one of our regulars has inquired about writing a guest blog, and I would like to widely announce that that is more than welcome. The point of this is to be a league site, and while I like to post my own bullshit, I'd also love to make this a repository of all the different kinds of bullshit we're able to come up with in this group. Please remember to include something to the effect of "This is nowhere near as good as Sovic's stuff" in the Comments section, though, to protect my oh-so-fragile ego. Anyways, if you want to submit something, just send it to me in an e-mail or attached to an e-mail and I will get it formatted into the blog.
Now onto some Game Re-Caps:
Fire Al Groh 5 (ft%/3pm/pts/reb/blk)
Fear the Turtle 3 (fg%/ast/stl)
What an appropriate week for these two teams to play, and what an appropriate outcome. The Hoos' victory over the Terps likely ended their chances at an NCAA berth, while FAG's defeat of the Turtle probably drove the final nail in the coffin of any playoff hopes for Dev. The epitaph on that playoff gravestone (extended metaphor!) may very well want to mention the early-week injury to Caron Butler, who ended up playing only one game in Week 19. CaBron did nearly contribute an Octuplet in his return, but even Tony Parker's big week (112 pts, 30 ast, 60% fgp and 96% ftp) couldn't overcome those three missed games. Bardey's boys had a number of well-rounded performances, most notably Mo Williams' 15 threes, 100 points, 17 boards and 15 assists. They also garnered a rare win in free throw percentage, owing to strong weeks by Williams, Vince Carter, Nate Robinson, and Josh Howard, and a not-awful week by Dwight Howard.
The Browless Wonders 7 (everything but blk)
Black Ice 1 (blk)
There's never all that much to say about these match-ups with Black Ice. Once again he had an 0-fer in the line-up, but Luol Deng didn't miss a game until after the week had started, so I'm not sure we can blame him. Let's focus on the positives for the Wonders: neither Chris Paul nor Jason Terry missed a free throw; Delonte West had a league-leading 13 steals on the strength of an 8-steal game; and Charlie V and Luis Scola both averaged double-doubles in scoring and boarding. If only Will had some big men he might have had a clean sweep by winning blocks. What's that you say? Charlie Villanueva, David West, Luis Scola, and Marcus Camby are all big men who should be able to get some blocks? Well maybe Will should think about getting some big guys who are interested in playing defense, or don't have migraine headaches that keep them out for weeks at a time.
Kill Whitey 4 (ft%/3pm/ast/blk)
Black Prezodents 3 (fg%/pts/reb)
Here's what I wrote on Sunday evening as this match-up was winding down: "So far this season, the Black Prezodents are tops in the league in steals, averaging almost 35 a week. Kill Whitey, on the other hand, is last in the league averaging a mere 13. And yet, as of this writing (sunday, 7:10), the two teams are separated by only one steal." That was me, up by a steal, and I thought it was a secure margin with JR Smith yet to play for me and Chris Anderson yet to play for Dekker. I was wrong; motherfucker tied me in steals. I think my Luck Factor has dipped by at least 1. Then again, I absolutely suck at field goal percentage, but Dekker's Whiteys were worst in the league this week, so maybe, as I suggested, it all balances out. Of note in the win was Steve Nash, who averaged 25 pts and 11 ast and shot 55%/88%.
Great Oden's Raven 5 (3pm/pts/reb/ast/stl)
Working's fo Suckers 3 (fg%/ft%/blk)
I don't normally proclaim a "Game of the Week" or anything, but if I did this would have been it. Of these two teams' 16 stat performances, 10 were in the top 3 in the league, including several in which they duked it out in the same category: Oden #1 and Suckers #2 in assists; Suckers #1 and Oden #2 in free throw percentage; Oden #2 and Suckers #3 in steals. Ultimately, though, Oden gained the slight edge in a few of those squeakers and continued their dominance of a select group of categories. This game also featured some drama, in that these two teams had recently made a big trade, and three of those players were in the starting line-ups. Only Jesse's acquisitions, however, had much to contribute, as Andris Biedrins apparently is not entirely over his injury. Randy Foye also missed some time, but Marc Gasol chipped in 11 blocks to lead the Suckers to victory in that category.
Snap Jelly Soldiers 6 (3pm/pts/reb/ast/stl/blk)
Screen Team 2 (fg%/ft%)
Screen Team is suffering right now from two teams' willingness to sit their stars, albeit for different reasons: the Celtics are a lock for the playoffs, and can afford to give their defensive centerpiece, Kevin Garnett, as much time as he needs to recover; and the Thunder are a lock for the lottery, and can't risk bringing the future of the franchise, Kevin Durant, back too soon. Fortunately, Screen Team is nearly a lock for the playoffs as well, so they can afford the spanking they took at the hands of Snap Jelly. Steffens' team has had a few off-weeks, but they were back in business to start March, leading the league in rebounds and blocks by considerable margins. As always, Snap Jelly was led by LeBron, who's really been stepping up his outside game lately (12 threes), and were helped along by solid all-around stats from top to bottom of the line-up.
Professor Dribbles 5 (fg%/pts/reb/ast/blk)
Dominique Moceanu 3 (ft%/3pm/stl)
If I bothered to name a Game of the Week, I suppose I can go ahead and name this Non-Game of the Week. Only two performances in this match-up--Dribbles' field goal percentage and Moceanu's threes--were in the top quarter of the league. Dribbles did secure the victory, but it should be noted that two of Billy's starters (Jeff Green and Allen Iverson) did not play a minute. Green's injury means that Billy very nearly acquired Baron Davis, Rasheed Wallace, and Michael Beasley in exchange for absolutely nothing a few weeks ago, so once again I have to applaud and thank him for his honest business dealing. Dekker may disagree.
The Best & Worst of Week 19:
FG%: Screen Team .508, Kill Whitey .451
FT%: Working's fo Suckers .856, Professor Dribbles .765
3PM: Fire Al Groh 49, Fear the Turtle 12
Pts: Great Oden's Raven 633, Black Ice 324
Reb: Snap Jelly Soldiers 242, Dominique Moceanu 125
Ast: Great Oden's Raven 154, Fire Al Groh 69
Stl: The Browless Wonders 47, Black Ice 21
Blk: Snap Jelly Soldiers 40, Dominique Moceanu 9
We're less than two weeks from the start of the play-offs, so this is the last chance for teams like Kill Whitey, Professor Dribbles, and Fear the Turtle to make their move. Here's who's battling in Week 20:
Black Prezodents vs. Great Oden's Raven
The Browless Wonders vs. Kill Whitey
Fear the Turtle vs. Black Ice
Professor Dribbles vs. Fire Al Groh
Snap Jelly Soldiers vs. Dominique Moceanu
Working's fo Suckers vs. Screen Team
Good luck to all except for Bernier, porque el presidente no es mas que una marioneta.
3.09.2009
This Week in League Pass
A look at the week to come in the NBA and the CUFBA.
If you were hoping for a Cluj Marketplace segment, you might have to wait a few more days. The schedule here in the Faculty Lounge is changing a bit, as I (and seemingly you) have lost interest in a few of the normal weeklies. But the League Pass Highlights lives on:
Monday: Lakers vs. Blazers
There is actually another game tonight (Hornets vs. Hawks) that I could get pretty geeked about, but Lakers-Blazers is pretty much a League Pass money shot as far as I'm concerned. The only thing that could up the ante on this one is if somehow Rondo suited up for Portland tonight (though it might explain his mysterious absence from the C's game yesterday). Even though I'm a big Blazers fan, I did not realize until just now that my boys have taken six straight from Kobe and company. That's pretty fucking incredible, considering that the Lakers have only lost six games to Western Conference opponents all season. [UPDATE: Apparently that statistic refers to games at the Rose Garden. Not nearly as impressive, but still pretty radical.]
Tuesday: Jazz vs. Pacers
OK this is a weird one. I don't really like either of these teams very much, but Utah is playing incredibly lately (11 straight victories) and I think Danny Granger might make a go at playing in this one, which would be awesome. If not, I'll enjoy watching the first quarter and a half of D-Will and Boozer dismantling the Pacers, then probably watch DVR'd episodes of Rob Dyrdek's Fantasy Factory.
Wednesday: Thunder vs. Nuggets
Speaking of players returning from injury... I'm not sure if he'll be back by this game (or anytime soon), but I did trade for Kevin Durant in my middle school league last week, so I'm looking forward to having another reason to watch the Thunder soon. My interest in the Nuggets is well-documented, and has enjoyed a recent resurgence thanks to George Karl's decision to finally start JR Smith.
Thursday: Cavaliers vs. Suns, I guess
Thursdays are probably a highlight of NBA fandom for some of you, since there are nationally broadcasted games, but I fucking hate these scantily-scheduled nights with only two games. Shocker, one of them is Kobe and the other is LeBron. I picked the later game because I'm more likely to watch it as I'm heading to bed.
Friday: Mavericks vs. Warriors...
...reminds me of that magical Round 1 series in '07 when the frenzied Diddy-led Warriors upset Dirk and co., and will serve as inspiration for Bardey and I to topple the odds in Atlantic City, where we will be rolling dice. Any and all should strongly consider joining us. There are Greyhounds leaving from the Port Authority practically every 20 minutes. After our big night, we'll probably be taking a helicopter back.
Saturday: Clippers vs. Nuggets
And if, by some chance, we return from the craps tables as Losers, then I will drown my sorrows on Saturday night amongst my own kind by watching my lowly Clippers, Baron Davis and Eric Gordon. I'm really pulling for Gordon to grab Rookie of the Year honors, but I think when you're playing for the Clippers, there's pretty much no hope.
Sunday: Blazers vs. Hawks
A week bookended by Blazers games against some of my favorite teams to watch is a wonderful week of the NBA indeed.
If you were hoping for a Cluj Marketplace segment, you might have to wait a few more days. The schedule here in the Faculty Lounge is changing a bit, as I (and seemingly you) have lost interest in a few of the normal weeklies. But the League Pass Highlights lives on:
Monday: Lakers vs. Blazers
There is actually another game tonight (Hornets vs. Hawks) that I could get pretty geeked about, but Lakers-Blazers is pretty much a League Pass money shot as far as I'm concerned. The only thing that could up the ante on this one is if somehow Rondo suited up for Portland tonight (though it might explain his mysterious absence from the C's game yesterday). Even though I'm a big Blazers fan, I did not realize until just now that my boys have taken six straight from Kobe and company. That's pretty fucking incredible, considering that the Lakers have only lost six games to Western Conference opponents all season. [UPDATE: Apparently that statistic refers to games at the Rose Garden. Not nearly as impressive, but still pretty radical.]
Tuesday: Jazz vs. Pacers
OK this is a weird one. I don't really like either of these teams very much, but Utah is playing incredibly lately (11 straight victories) and I think Danny Granger might make a go at playing in this one, which would be awesome. If not, I'll enjoy watching the first quarter and a half of D-Will and Boozer dismantling the Pacers, then probably watch DVR'd episodes of Rob Dyrdek's Fantasy Factory.
Wednesday: Thunder vs. Nuggets
Speaking of players returning from injury... I'm not sure if he'll be back by this game (or anytime soon), but I did trade for Kevin Durant in my middle school league last week, so I'm looking forward to having another reason to watch the Thunder soon. My interest in the Nuggets is well-documented, and has enjoyed a recent resurgence thanks to George Karl's decision to finally start JR Smith.
Thursday: Cavaliers vs. Suns, I guess
Thursdays are probably a highlight of NBA fandom for some of you, since there are nationally broadcasted games, but I fucking hate these scantily-scheduled nights with only two games. Shocker, one of them is Kobe and the other is LeBron. I picked the later game because I'm more likely to watch it as I'm heading to bed.
Friday: Mavericks vs. Warriors...
...reminds me of that magical Round 1 series in '07 when the frenzied Diddy-led Warriors upset Dirk and co., and will serve as inspiration for Bardey and I to topple the odds in Atlantic City, where we will be rolling dice. Any and all should strongly consider joining us. There are Greyhounds leaving from the Port Authority practically every 20 minutes. After our big night, we'll probably be taking a helicopter back.
Saturday: Clippers vs. Nuggets
And if, by some chance, we return from the craps tables as Losers, then I will drown my sorrows on Saturday night amongst my own kind by watching my lowly Clippers, Baron Davis and Eric Gordon. I'm really pulling for Gordon to grab Rookie of the Year honors, but I think when you're playing for the Clippers, there's pretty much no hope.
Sunday: Blazers vs. Hawks
A week bookended by Blazers games against some of my favorite teams to watch is a wonderful week of the NBA indeed.
3.08.2009
Charts & Figgers
Each Saturday brings high-level statistical analysis from a man who hasn't taken a math class since high school.
So far this season, the Black Prezodents are tops in the league in steals, averaging almost 35 a week. Kill Whitey, on the other hand, is last in the league averaging a mere 13. And yet, as of this writing (sunday, 7:10), the two teams are separated by only one steal. Schedule variations, injuries, and roster changes conspire together every week to take what should be clear victories and turn them into defeats. Certainly team management comes into play somewhat in determining these unexpected results, but to a large degree it comes down to luck. Considering this, I decided to look into quantifying the luck of each team in the league.
To determine the luck factor of each team, I looked over the full-season statistics for each team, looking at who they're ahead of, who they're behind, and how many times they've played each. Then I compared the total number of games they've won to the number of games they "should have" won, thus producing their Luck Factor. (Ejemplo: The Browless Wonders are 8th in the league in field goal percentage, and they've played teams 9-12 six times, so they "should" have six fg% wins. In fact, they have 10. Lucky fucks.)
The Cluj U FBA Luck Index (as of Week 18)
Fear the Turtle: has won 65, should have won 49. Luck Factor = +16
Screen Team: has won 79, should have won 66. Luck Factor = +13
Black Ice: has won 29, should have won 25. Luck Factor = +4
Professor Dribbles: has won 65, should have won 63. Luck Factor = +2
Fire Al Groh: has won 89, should have won 87. Luck Factor = +2
Dominique Moceanu: has won 60, should have won 61. Luck Factor = -1
Kill Whitey: has won 66, should have won 68. Luck Factor = -2
Black Prezodents: have won 75, should have won 78. Luck Factor = -3
Working's fo Suckers: has won 63, should have won 70. Luck Factor = -7
The Browless Wonders: have won 84, should have won 92. Luck Factor = -8
Great Oden's Raven: have won 84, should have won 95. Luck Factor = -11
Snap Jelly Soldiers: have won 91, should have won 110. Luck Factor = -19
That's right, despite the fact that Snap Jelly Soldiers are on top of the league, they've actually lost a lot of games that, statistically, they should have won. Instead of just beating the rest of us, they should be crushing us. I should also note that Screen's Luck Factor is probably thrown off a bit by the fact that he produced no stats for the first two weeks, but I'm not about to do a ton more math just to eliminate that inconsistency.
The biggest swings in luck came in the percentage categories, with Snap Jelly suffering a -8 differential and Great Oden's Raven boasting a +8 differential in field goal percentage. In general, though, percentages are decided by relatively thin margins, so it's not surprising that the results should be so influenced by luck. Among the volume stats, the biggest swings were Fear the Turles, with +6's in both Assists and 3-Pointers, and Kill Whitey, with a -7 in Assists.
Obviously, there's nothing any of us can do to affect or alter our luck, but things in the fantasy universe do tend towards parity and equality, and I am a believer in karma, so those of you with negative luck factors can probably expect some good things coming your way in the next couple weeks. As for Dev and Screen? You two are fucked.
So far this season, the Black Prezodents are tops in the league in steals, averaging almost 35 a week. Kill Whitey, on the other hand, is last in the league averaging a mere 13. And yet, as of this writing (sunday, 7:10), the two teams are separated by only one steal. Schedule variations, injuries, and roster changes conspire together every week to take what should be clear victories and turn them into defeats. Certainly team management comes into play somewhat in determining these unexpected results, but to a large degree it comes down to luck. Considering this, I decided to look into quantifying the luck of each team in the league.
To determine the luck factor of each team, I looked over the full-season statistics for each team, looking at who they're ahead of, who they're behind, and how many times they've played each. Then I compared the total number of games they've won to the number of games they "should have" won, thus producing their Luck Factor. (Ejemplo: The Browless Wonders are 8th in the league in field goal percentage, and they've played teams 9-12 six times, so they "should" have six fg% wins. In fact, they have 10. Lucky fucks.)
The Cluj U FBA Luck Index (as of Week 18)
Fear the Turtle: has won 65, should have won 49. Luck Factor = +16
Screen Team: has won 79, should have won 66. Luck Factor = +13
Black Ice: has won 29, should have won 25. Luck Factor = +4
Professor Dribbles: has won 65, should have won 63. Luck Factor = +2
Fire Al Groh: has won 89, should have won 87. Luck Factor = +2
Dominique Moceanu: has won 60, should have won 61. Luck Factor = -1
Kill Whitey: has won 66, should have won 68. Luck Factor = -2
Black Prezodents: have won 75, should have won 78. Luck Factor = -3
Working's fo Suckers: has won 63, should have won 70. Luck Factor = -7
The Browless Wonders: have won 84, should have won 92. Luck Factor = -8
Great Oden's Raven: have won 84, should have won 95. Luck Factor = -11
Snap Jelly Soldiers: have won 91, should have won 110. Luck Factor = -19
That's right, despite the fact that Snap Jelly Soldiers are on top of the league, they've actually lost a lot of games that, statistically, they should have won. Instead of just beating the rest of us, they should be crushing us. I should also note that Screen's Luck Factor is probably thrown off a bit by the fact that he produced no stats for the first two weeks, but I'm not about to do a ton more math just to eliminate that inconsistency.
The biggest swings in luck came in the percentage categories, with Snap Jelly suffering a -8 differential and Great Oden's Raven boasting a +8 differential in field goal percentage. In general, though, percentages are decided by relatively thin margins, so it's not surprising that the results should be so influenced by luck. Among the volume stats, the biggest swings were Fear the Turles, with +6's in both Assists and 3-Pointers, and Kill Whitey, with a -7 in Assists.
Obviously, there's nothing any of us can do to affect or alter our luck, but things in the fantasy universe do tend towards parity and equality, and I am a believer in karma, so those of you with negative luck factors can probably expect some good things coming your way in the next couple weeks. As for Dev and Screen? You two are fucked.
3.05.2009
Week 18 in Review: Game Re-Caps
What you missed if you were only paying attention to your own game, you selfish prick.
Whoops! Kind of forgot I had a blog here for a couple days. Here, belatedly, are your Week 18 write-ups.
Great Oden's Raven 6 (ft%/3pm/pts/ast/stl/blk)
Screen Team 2 (fg%/reb)
The injury bug bit Screen Team this week, meaning only partial weeks for two of Andres' most valuable contributors: Kevin Durant and Nene. As we saw in last week's Charts & Figgers, Durant is a big part of Screen Team's success in every single category, and though Jarrett Jack (8 3s, 98 pts, 20 ast, 5 st) stepped up in his absence, there still wasn't much the Screen Teamers could do in the face of Beb's traditionally dominant categories. As noted last week, the Ravens are perennial contenders in a handful of categories (3s, points, assists, steals) while rolling the dice on the others. I recommended a trade to sacrifice some of those cats, and Beb responded by giving up some of those 3s and points (Randy Foye) to pick up some boards (Andris Biedrins). It will be interesting to see how that shift in strategy plays out for G.O.R. as we near the end of the regular season.
Working's fo Suckers 6 (ft%/pts/reb/ast/stl/blk)
Kill Whitey 2 (fg%/3pm)
Hey, hey! Look who's involved in a fantasy basketball league! It's Jesse, who not only shook up his roster with the afore-mentioned Great Oden's Raven trade, but also handed Dekker a week 18 ass-whooping. Two of the factors that have dragged the Suckers down this season have been the inconsistent health of Deron Williams and Zach Randolph, but both were at full strength this week and it paid off. D-Will has his old running mate, Carlos Boozer, back, and the ol' Jazz pick-and-roll paid off to the tune of 54 assists. Randolph led the team in scoring (101) and boarding (44), as you might have expected him to at the beginning of the season--an expectation he has rarely met. Between Williams, Jason Kidd, and Leandro Barbosa running the point for an injured Steve Nash, this team has some serious dish power, and they led the league in assists this week with 171. A playoff berth seems unlikely at this point for Delconte, but if the team stays at full strength they might play the spoiler role for their next few opponents.
Professor Dribbles 6 (fg%/3pm/pts/reb/ast/stl)
Snap Jelly Soldiers 2 (ft%/blk)
Holy shit. Professor Dribbles achieved two Cluj milestones this week in an unlikely victory that had the whole league (OK, more like me, Will, and Bardey) aflame with excitement. The first was crossing the 700-points barrier. I'm not sure if this is the first time we've had someone go over 700, but at the very least it's exceedingly rare and impressive. Helping the Professor get there was the continued excellence of Kobe Bryant (136 pts) and the resurgence of his former teammate, Shaquille O'Neal (110 pts). The second notable achievement for Dribbles was handing Snap Jelly Soldiers only their second loss of the season, and their first since Week 4. Dribbs was solid across the board, leading the league in field goal percentage and points, and finishing second in assists. This was very nearly a 7-1 victory, as Snap Jelly (31 steals) was the only team in the league to top Dribbles in that category this week. This was the second straight underwhelming performance for the league leaders, but that blow is likely softened by the fact that even in losing 6-2, Steffens clinched a playoff position. That must be nice for him. Asshole.
Fear the Turtle 5 (fg%/pts/reb/ast/blk)
Dominique Moceanu 2 (ft%/3pm)
Poor Billy. After losing Amar'e Stoudemire to injury, and thus (controversially) negating our trade, his return to the West Coast apparently left him too tired, too late, too hungover, or too disinterested to adjust his line-up for Week 18, and he ended up leaving blanks at two positions. These gaping holes left him at or near the bottom of the league in most of the volume stats, but he still managed to lead the league in threes thanks to Ron Artest, Kevin Martin, and Peja Stojakovic. The Turtles were paced by Tony Parker who led the team in points (102) and assists (31), while new face-of-the-franchise Chris Wilcox was worst on the squad in threes (0), points (7), rebounds (7), assists (1), and both the percentages. With Wilcox turning out to be such a huge disappointment and Juan Dixon inexplicably not on the roster, it's unclear why Dev persists in naming himself after Maryland, or why any of us, besides a lousy team with two empty slots, should fear them.
The Browless Wonders 4 (ft%/ast/stl/blk)
Fire Al Groh 4 (fg%/3pm/pts/reb)
Like Screen Team and Professor Dribbles in last week's match-up, these two cocksuckers found themselves a way to tie so that no one's feelings got hurt and the lovefest between them could continue. I was a party to one or two of their chats last week, but I can only imagine the sorts of private online chats that were going on between these two as their match-up progressed. Surely Bardey marveled at Chris Paul's 55 assists, while Shoaf was awed by the scoring prowess of Nate Robinson (116 points). With the rebound battle so close, I'm guessing that Will called off the dogs headed into the weekend so that Bardey and his tandem of Dwight Howard (54 boards) and Emeka Okafor (37 boards) would not have to face the indignity of losing that category--an unspeakable fate. Still, Bardey must have been crushed to suffer his first ever defeat in blocks, and I can only hope that Will was able to adequately console him via google video-chat.
Black Prezodents 7 (fg%/3pm/pts/reb/ast/stl/blk)
Black Ice 1 (ft%)
Whew! I needed that. Nothing particularly fantastic for the Prezbos this week, but nothing fantastic is called for when you're taking on the likes of Joakim Noah and Javale McGee.
Here are your Best and Worst for Week 18:
Field Goal Percentage: Professor Dribbles .514, Great Oden's Raven .444
Free Throw Percentage: Great Oden's Raven .877, Fire Al Groh .705
Three-Pointers Made: Dominique Moceanu 53, Snap Jelly Soldiers 15
Points: Professor Dribbles 703, Black Ice 370
Rebounds: Black Prezodents 250, Dominique Moceanu 134
Assists: Working's fo Suckers 171, Black Ice 82
Steals: Browless Wonders 42, Kill Whitey 20
Blocks: Snap Jelly Soldiers 31, Dominique Moceanu 10
Week 19's match-ups include...
Black Prezodents vs. Kill Whitey - RGR Match-Up
The Browless Wonders vs. Black Ice
Fear the Turtle vs. Fire Al Groh
Professor Dribbles vs. Dominique Moceanu
Snap Jelly Soldiers vs. Screen Team
Great Oden's Raven vs. Working's fo Suckers - RGR Match-Up
Good luck to all in Week 19 except for Dekker.
Because he's a faggot.
Whoops! Kind of forgot I had a blog here for a couple days. Here, belatedly, are your Week 18 write-ups.
Great Oden's Raven 6 (ft%/3pm/pts/ast/stl/blk)
Screen Team 2 (fg%/reb)
The injury bug bit Screen Team this week, meaning only partial weeks for two of Andres' most valuable contributors: Kevin Durant and Nene. As we saw in last week's Charts & Figgers, Durant is a big part of Screen Team's success in every single category, and though Jarrett Jack (8 3s, 98 pts, 20 ast, 5 st) stepped up in his absence, there still wasn't much the Screen Teamers could do in the face of Beb's traditionally dominant categories. As noted last week, the Ravens are perennial contenders in a handful of categories (3s, points, assists, steals) while rolling the dice on the others. I recommended a trade to sacrifice some of those cats, and Beb responded by giving up some of those 3s and points (Randy Foye) to pick up some boards (Andris Biedrins). It will be interesting to see how that shift in strategy plays out for G.O.R. as we near the end of the regular season.
Working's fo Suckers 6 (ft%/pts/reb/ast/stl/blk)
Kill Whitey 2 (fg%/3pm)
Hey, hey! Look who's involved in a fantasy basketball league! It's Jesse, who not only shook up his roster with the afore-mentioned Great Oden's Raven trade, but also handed Dekker a week 18 ass-whooping. Two of the factors that have dragged the Suckers down this season have been the inconsistent health of Deron Williams and Zach Randolph, but both were at full strength this week and it paid off. D-Will has his old running mate, Carlos Boozer, back, and the ol' Jazz pick-and-roll paid off to the tune of 54 assists. Randolph led the team in scoring (101) and boarding (44), as you might have expected him to at the beginning of the season--an expectation he has rarely met. Between Williams, Jason Kidd, and Leandro Barbosa running the point for an injured Steve Nash, this team has some serious dish power, and they led the league in assists this week with 171. A playoff berth seems unlikely at this point for Delconte, but if the team stays at full strength they might play the spoiler role for their next few opponents.
Professor Dribbles 6 (fg%/3pm/pts/reb/ast/stl)
Snap Jelly Soldiers 2 (ft%/blk)
Holy shit. Professor Dribbles achieved two Cluj milestones this week in an unlikely victory that had the whole league (OK, more like me, Will, and Bardey) aflame with excitement. The first was crossing the 700-points barrier. I'm not sure if this is the first time we've had someone go over 700, but at the very least it's exceedingly rare and impressive. Helping the Professor get there was the continued excellence of Kobe Bryant (136 pts) and the resurgence of his former teammate, Shaquille O'Neal (110 pts). The second notable achievement for Dribbles was handing Snap Jelly Soldiers only their second loss of the season, and their first since Week 4. Dribbs was solid across the board, leading the league in field goal percentage and points, and finishing second in assists. This was very nearly a 7-1 victory, as Snap Jelly (31 steals) was the only team in the league to top Dribbles in that category this week. This was the second straight underwhelming performance for the league leaders, but that blow is likely softened by the fact that even in losing 6-2, Steffens clinched a playoff position. That must be nice for him. Asshole.
Fear the Turtle 5 (fg%/pts/reb/ast/blk)
Dominique Moceanu 2 (ft%/3pm)
Poor Billy. After losing Amar'e Stoudemire to injury, and thus (controversially) negating our trade, his return to the West Coast apparently left him too tired, too late, too hungover, or too disinterested to adjust his line-up for Week 18, and he ended up leaving blanks at two positions. These gaping holes left him at or near the bottom of the league in most of the volume stats, but he still managed to lead the league in threes thanks to Ron Artest, Kevin Martin, and Peja Stojakovic. The Turtles were paced by Tony Parker who led the team in points (102) and assists (31), while new face-of-the-franchise Chris Wilcox was worst on the squad in threes (0), points (7), rebounds (7), assists (1), and both the percentages. With Wilcox turning out to be such a huge disappointment and Juan Dixon inexplicably not on the roster, it's unclear why Dev persists in naming himself after Maryland, or why any of us, besides a lousy team with two empty slots, should fear them.
The Browless Wonders 4 (ft%/ast/stl/blk)
Fire Al Groh 4 (fg%/3pm/pts/reb)
Like Screen Team and Professor Dribbles in last week's match-up, these two cocksuckers found themselves a way to tie so that no one's feelings got hurt and the lovefest between them could continue. I was a party to one or two of their chats last week, but I can only imagine the sorts of private online chats that were going on between these two as their match-up progressed. Surely Bardey marveled at Chris Paul's 55 assists, while Shoaf was awed by the scoring prowess of Nate Robinson (116 points). With the rebound battle so close, I'm guessing that Will called off the dogs headed into the weekend so that Bardey and his tandem of Dwight Howard (54 boards) and Emeka Okafor (37 boards) would not have to face the indignity of losing that category--an unspeakable fate. Still, Bardey must have been crushed to suffer his first ever defeat in blocks, and I can only hope that Will was able to adequately console him via google video-chat.
Black Prezodents 7 (fg%/3pm/pts/reb/ast/stl/blk)
Black Ice 1 (ft%)
Whew! I needed that. Nothing particularly fantastic for the Prezbos this week, but nothing fantastic is called for when you're taking on the likes of Joakim Noah and Javale McGee.
Here are your Best and Worst for Week 18:
Field Goal Percentage: Professor Dribbles .514, Great Oden's Raven .444
Free Throw Percentage: Great Oden's Raven .877, Fire Al Groh .705
Three-Pointers Made: Dominique Moceanu 53, Snap Jelly Soldiers 15
Points: Professor Dribbles 703, Black Ice 370
Rebounds: Black Prezodents 250, Dominique Moceanu 134
Assists: Working's fo Suckers 171, Black Ice 82
Steals: Browless Wonders 42, Kill Whitey 20
Blocks: Snap Jelly Soldiers 31, Dominique Moceanu 10
Week 19's match-ups include...
Black Prezodents vs. Kill Whitey - RGR Match-Up
The Browless Wonders vs. Black Ice
Fear the Turtle vs. Fire Al Groh
Professor Dribbles vs. Dominique Moceanu
Snap Jelly Soldiers vs. Screen Team
Great Oden's Raven vs. Working's fo Suckers - RGR Match-Up
Good luck to all in Week 19 except for Dekker.
Because he's a faggot.
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